The current forecast date is 29 December, showing data until 02 January.
The main forecasting model is an unweighted ensemble of three individual models:
covid19.nhs.data)All models are trained on the last 6 weeks of data (from 17 November) and forecasts are made for the following 14 days.
Note: for clarity, we only show forecasts for Trusts which have admitted five or more patients in the last 7 days.
We derive forecasts of national and regional hospital admissions from the Trust-level admissions. For each of the individual models, the forecast samples are summed to get national/regional forecasts, then summarised into quantile forecasts, and then the ensemble forecast created. These are compared below to forecasts made using EpiNow2.
We compare last weeks forecasts (from 22 December 2021) to the current observed data.
We derive forecasts of national hospital admissions from the Trust-level admissions. For each of the individual models, the forecast samples are summed to get national forecasts, then summarised into quantile forecasts. The ensemble forecast is created from the national quantile forecasts.
We derive forecasts of regional hospital admissions from the Trust-level admissions. For each of the individual models, the forecast samples are summed to get regional forecasts, then summarised into quantile forecasts. The ensemble forecast is created from the regional quantile forecasts.